The Numbers

Photo credit: Jim McIsaac

Betting BlueprintĀ Ā Ā NFL Line / Pick EmsĀ Ā The Numbers

Defenses at home cover/ good defenses as road underdogs cover.

Defense is what keeps you in the games. It keeps scores close and allows your team more chances to put points on the board. We saw in 2017 that teams with n above average defense as home favorite/ road underdogs, covered the majority of the time.

Bet underdogs, once point spread gets to +4.5, things start to a way with the favorite.

After looking at every outcome of each point spread since 2011, when a team is favored by 4 points or less. Vegas is saying that the teams are pretty much evenly matched and are giving a few points to teams just based on matchups, home/road, or other factors.

Since 2011, +4 favorites have only covered 40.4% of the time (36-53-1).

When the point spread gets to +4.5, we see a dramatic increase in teams covering.

Since 2014, teams that are +4.5 cover 60.5% of the time, +5 cover 62.1%, and +5.5 cover 56% of the time.

Harsher environments teams cover at home.

Teams who play in tougher environment have a huge advantage when it comes to covering. Teams like Seattle, New England, and Green Bay are all places that road teams don’t handle well, therefore advantage home team.

Teams who can run the ball cover.

This goes back to the time of possession battle, the more you have the ball, the more points you are likely to score, also the less chances the other team get to put up points.

Good teams cover on road games when an underdog.

The best teams in the league find ways to win big games on the road. Sometimes they don’t win but more often than not, the cover.
Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 3.37.06 AM

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.