Photo Credit: Jamie Mullen
These are strategies that have been tested over several seasons and have shown correlation for teams who cover more often than those who do not.
Teams who turn the ball over do not cover.
Teams who consistently turn the ball over have a harder time covering due to the fact that they have the ball less while the other team has it more. Also, teams who turn the ball over often lose the field position battle, giving the other team easier chances to score.
It’s all about the defense and quarterback.
Who leads late game drives/stops them?
Qbs can score late to get score closer to spread/ above spread.
Defenses can hold teams under spread/ give team a chance to cover.
Home and road games matter.
Teams play differently on the road and at home. Some teams play much better at home than they do away from home. You need to look beyond the normal win/loss record and see how teams fair in certain locations. Look at their stats on how they fair in different environments as well. Some teams are excellent dome teams while others play best in colder harsher environments.
Try to look past a teams win loss record and look at the scores of their games. Maybe a team has a bad record but is consistently losing by less than one score or a good team is only winning by a few.